The bank said it was projecting total International LNG import growth of 18% for 2010, followed by 9% in 2011, with the bulk of the increase coming from Asia and Europe. "We believe the risk of an influx of LNG imports to the US is low," it added, since it expects US gas prices to remain "very weak."
The UK could become the world's fourth-largest LNG importer in 2010, after Spain, with imports up 120% year on year "potentially exceeding 11.6 MMT," it said. "In general, UK LNG utilization rates at regasifcation capacity still remains low, suggesting room for further liquid gas imports into the UK."
In Asia, China and India have expanded their import capacity, the bank said, while South Korean and Japanese imports had "surprised to the upside, though largely driven by a hot summer." And "new joiners" such as Argentina, Brazil and Chile would also soak up some of the expected growth in supply, it added.
Global LNG supply would likely grow 14% in 2010 and 9.6% in 2011, the bank said. It added, however, that a number of issues "are clouding the supply outlook of existing facilities." Those include rising use of domestic gas among some exporters, technical issues "as seen with RasGas Train 7 and Tangguh in Indonesia," and maintenance of LNG trains, particularly in Qatar.
"Combine the strong rebound in LNG demand with the startup delays at Qatargas Trains 6 and 7 into next year, and we get a global LNG market in 2010 that is less loose than commonly expected," the bank said.
As a result, it added, the market would "likely be able to rebalance over the course of 2011."In level terms," the bank added, the market would remain oversupplied in both 2010 and 2011 due to utilization rates at liquefaction terminals remaining below 90%, however.
LNG production reached a total of 181.7 MMT in 2009, according to independent consultant Andy Flower.
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